AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
4,450 markets · page 1 of 186
3 outcomes
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The market's 5% odds reflect that SpaceX would need an unprecedented launch cadence in the final days of July to exceed 14 launches, and recent engine failures on Starship reduce the chances of a surge.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The field is extremely front-loaded: the top candidate (before 2027-04-01) commands 95% odds, and all ten candidates above 5% stack into the next nine months, reflecting a market consensus that Flight 14 is imminent but not immediate. The largest recent shift is the collapse of near-term dates after the July 17 abort, when the 'before 2026-10-01' candidate dropped from ~80% to 71% following a second launch abort.
11 outcomes
2 outcomes
SpaceX's 2026 launch count market is heavily skewed toward No because it hinges on exceeding 15 launches in July alone, a threshold that looks impossible after a recent Starship abort and with only about 13 known launches this year so far — the real story is that the bar is absurdly high relative to cadence.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes
Yes ≈ 46% chance
26 outcomes
Despite a flurry of speculative articles and celebrity chatter, the market sees near-zero chance of an official U.S. confirmation of aliens before 2027, because no credible government or scientific body has made a definitive statement and the resolution criteria are extremely narrow.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The field is highly concentrated on Flight 20 at 80%, with Flight 16 and 15 as the only other serious contenders, but the recent Flight 12 and 13 results show that booster recovery remains the critical bottleneck, making the 80% on Flight 20 seem aggressive given the historical failure rate on booster landings.
12 outcomes
6 outcomes