Masoud Pezeshkian out as President of Iran by ...?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: December 31 at about a 24% chance.
The market is highly fragmented: the top three date outcomes sum to only 33%, meaning 67% of probability sits on later dates or never, so the 'out by Dec 31' front-runner at 24% is far from a lock and the field is wide open.
What's driving it
- • Persistent health questions about Pezeshkian, highlighted by his meeting with the new ayatollah on July 5 (Euronews.com, Jul 5), are likely nudging the Dec 31 odds upward as traders price in a possible medical exit.
- • The historic US deal and Pezeshkian's subsequent trip to Pakistan on June 23 (Bloomberg, Jun 23) signal a diplomatic win that could strengthen his domestic position, dampening near-term departure odds.
- • Pezeshkian's July 4 criticism of international silence over Israeli actions (Middle East Monitor, Jul 4) keeps him in a confrontational foreign-policy stance, which may fuel internal opposition or pressure.
- • The July 8 statement that neighboring countries will not be targeted unless provoked (News On AIR, Jul 8) attempts to de-escalate tensions, potentially reducing the risk of a crisis that would force him out.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The Dec 31 date benefits from the cumulative uncertainty around Pezeshkian's health: the July 5 meeting with the new ayatollah amid 'persistent health questions' (Euronews) is the most concrete catalyst keeping that date above 20%.
- • The low odds for March 31 (6%) and June 30 (3%) suggest the market sees a narrow window around the end of 2026 as the most plausible early exit, likely tied to a combination of health and political factors.
- • The single biggest recent shift appears to be the health-related headline, which has kept the Dec 31 probability as the clear leader despite the overall field being open.
Why it's still open
- • The 76% probability assigned to all other outcomes (including staying past Dec 31) shows the market is skeptical of an imminent departure, especially given Pezeshkian's active diplomatic agenda (Pakistan visit, US deal) in late June.
- • The PM Modi greeting on July 8 (News On AIR) and the 'historic deal with US' (Bloomberg) signal that key international partners are engaging with him, reducing the likelihood of a sudden ouster.
- • A challenger could overtake Dec 31 if a new health crisis or political scandal emerges before July 2026, but currently no single alternative date has more than 6%, meaning the field is a long tail of possibilities.
What to watch
- • Any new medical report or official statement about Pezeshkian's health could sharply shift probability toward earlier dates, especially if it suggests an inability to govern (likely direction: up for Dec 31, down for later dates).
- • The new ayatollah's first major policy decisions or public remarks on the presidency could either bolster Pezeshkian or signal a loss of support, moving odds toward June 30 or March 31 if negative (likely direction: down for Dec 31 if positive, up if negative).
- • A future parliamentary vote of confidence or no-confidence motion, possibly triggered by opposition factions, would be a clear catalyst for a date-specific outcome; the next such session is not yet scheduled, but any announcement would clarify the timeline.
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Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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