Which countries will improve their position in the 2027 Democracy Report Ranking?

What's driving it

• • The EIU's April 2026 report that democracy stabilized globally after eight years of decline (Democracy Without Borders, Apr 9) provides a macro tailwind for all candidates, especially those with recent reforms or recovering institutions.
• • The Freedom House report (Mar 19, 2026) on the growing shadow of autocracy creates a counter-narrative that may suppress odds for countries seen as vulnerable to backsliding, such as India or Brazil.
• • The UN Women report (Mar 11, 2026) on women’s leadership and political participation could advantage candidates with gender-inclusive policies, like Ecuador or Brazil, which have active gender quotas.

What to watch

• • The release of the 2026 Freedom House World Report (expected late 2026) could reshuffle odds if it highlights sharp improvements or declines in specific countries, with direction likely benefiting Ecuador or Brazil if their scores rise.
• • The IDEA Global State of Democracy report (typically September) will provide granular data; an update showing a net decline (as in 2025, Sep 22) would hurt all candidates except those seen as relative bright spots.
• • National elections in Brazil or India in late 2026/early 2027 that consolidate democratic practices would boost their odds, while any electoral violence or irregularities would sharply depress them.