Elected Senators for Alagoas in 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Arthur Lira at about a 48% chance — a coin toss.
The field is moderately concentrated around two heavyweights, Arthur Lira and Renan Calheiros, who together account for 93% implied probability, but with two Senate seats up for grabs, a third candidate like Alfredo Gaspar (27%) remains a viable spoiler. The single biggest recent shift was the removal of former President Collor from contention after his April 2025 arrest and subsequent house arrest (Reuters, May 1, 2025), which likely cleared a path for Lira and Calheiros to dominate.
What's driving it
- • Collor's arrest and house arrest in April–May 2025 (Reuters, Al Jazeera) eliminated a historically strong Alagoas candidate, consolidating support behind Lira and Calheiros.
- • Arthur Lira's role as President of the Chamber of Deputies gives him outsized influence over federal budget allocations, a concrete mechanism to reward local allies and voters.
- • Renan Calheiros leverages a decades-old political dynasty in Alagoas, with deep family and clientelist networks that sustain his base despite past corruption allegations.
- • Alfredo Gaspar, a former governor, remains a distant third but could benefit if either front-runner faces a late scandal or if Collor's absence creates a vacuum for a centrist alternative.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Arthur Lira leads because his control over the federal budget (as Chamber president) allows him to direct pork and infrastructure to Alagoas, buying loyalty from mayors and voters.
- • Renan Calheiros leads because his family name and long tenure in the Senate give him a loyal base in rural and traditional areas, reinforced by control over local party machines.
- • Alfredo Gaspar's 27% reflects his residual name recognition as a former governor, but he lacks the national pull or financial firepower of the top two.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open because two Senate seats are available, meaning a candidate with 27% (Gaspar) could easily win if one of the front-runners slips below 50% or if vote splitting occurs.
- • A late corruption scandal or legal setback for Lira or Calheiros—similar to Collor's fate—could crater their support and allow Gaspar or even Paulão (5%) to surge.
- • Paulão, though at 5%, could overtake if the left-wing base in Alagoas unites behind him, especially if Lira and Calheiros split the centrist vote.
What to watch
- • The official candidate registration deadline (likely August 2026) will clarify whether Collor attempts to run from house arrest—if he does, he could siphon votes from Lira and Calheiros, boosting Gaspar.
- • Campaign finance disclosures in mid-2026 will reveal which candidates have the most resources; a large war chest for Gaspar could signal a serious challenge to the front-runners.
- • The October 2026 election date itself is the ultimate catalyst—any late-breaking scandal or debate performance could reshuffle the odds dramatically in the final weeks.
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Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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