New pandemic by the end of ____?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2027 at about a 8% chance.
The field is extremely flat and open, with both 2026 and 2027 tied at 6% and no other candidate above 5%, meaning 88% of probability mass is spread across later years or a 'no pandemic' outcome; the biggest recent shift is likely the July 8 Euronews article quoting an Oxford professor that 'the next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when,' which may have marginally increased general awareness but did not narrow the timing.
📊 Base rate: Major pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009, 2020) have occurred roughly every 10–20 years, implying an annual probability of about 2–5%, so the current 6% per year for 2026 and 2027 is slightly elevated but still within historical range.
What's driving it
- • The July 8 Euronews article quoting an Oxford professor that 'the next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when' reinforces a baseline expectation of a future pandemic but does not specify a year, keeping the field flat.
- • The July 5 Telegraph article on terrorists using AI to cause the next pandemic introduces a human-caused risk factor that could increase perceived probability across all years, but without a specific timeline.
- • The July 7 CEPI article on Bundibugyo and the 100 Days Mission highlights ongoing preparedness efforts, which may slightly reduce near-term probability by emphasizing containment and response improvements.
- • The July 1 BBC article on the Ebola outbreak in DR Congo serves as a real-world reminder of zoonotic spillover risk, but the outbreak is not yet a pandemic, so it primarily affects the '2026' candidate if it escalates.
Why the front-runners lead
- • 2026 and 2027 are tied as front-runners because they are the nearest two calendar years, and the baseline expectation of a pandemic within a few years concentrates probability on the earliest possible resolution dates.
- • The 'yes' side benefits from the general consensus that another pandemic is inevitable, as stated in the Euronews article, making the most immediate years the most likely.
Why it's still open
- • The field is wide open because 88% of probability is assigned to years beyond 2027 or to no pandemic, meaning any specific year currently has very low odds.
- • A candidate like 2028 or 2029 could overtake the front-runners if a major outbreak occurs later in 2026 or 2027, shifting the expected timing outward, or if no pandemic materializes by 2027, the 'no pandemic' outcome could become the leading candidate.
What to watch
- • Any WHO emergency committee meeting or escalation of the DR Congo Ebola outbreak (e.g., a confirmed case outside Africa) would likely increase probability for 2026, as it would be a near-term trigger.
- • Publication of a new pandemic risk assessment, such as the 'AI map' mentioned in the July 7 Gadget Review article, could shift probability toward the middle years (e.g., 2028–2030) if it identifies a future threat but not an immediate one.
- • A major policy announcement on pandemic preparedness, such as a new funding commitment from CEPI or the G7, could reduce near-term probability by increasing confidence in containment, thus favoring later years.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by Futuur per each question's rules. Futuur runs both play- and real-money sides — we show the real-money (crypto) price.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance