How many ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by July 31?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: At least 30 at about a 16% chance.
The field is extremely low-probability across all thresholds, with the market heavily discounting even a 30-ship day, reflecting severe disruption from attacks and ships going dark, but the 'nothing is going through' claim (CBS, Jul 22) is contradicted by US military-assisted transits (CNBC, Jul 13), leaving the market balanced between fear and official reassurance.
What's driving it
- • Attacks on oil shipments in the Red Sea, Hormuz, and Black Sea (CNBC, Jul 24) have increased the perceived risk of transit, pushing odds for higher thresholds down.
- • Reports that ships are turning off AIS and hugging Iran's coast to avoid detection (NY Post, Jul 24) indicate extreme caution, reducing the count of visible transits.
- • A shipping insider quoted as saying 'nothing is going through' despite the US insisting it's open (CBS, Jul 22) likely drove a sharp drop in odds for higher numbers.
- • The US claim that 8 million barrels of oil transited with military assistance (CNBC, Jul 13) provides a counter-narrative that traffic continues, but market skepticism persists.
Why the front-runners lead
- • At least 30 ships leads at 16% because it is the lowest threshold and thus the most likely to be reached even under disruption, but the probability is still low.
- • Ongoing attacks and Iran tensions make it unlikely that daily traffic will reach the 40 or 50 ship thresholds, concentrating the odds on the low end.
- • The market is pricing in a baseline of severe disruption, so even the front-runner is a long shot.
Why it's still open
- • The odds for all thresholds are very low (total 28% for top three), meaning the market is genuinely uncertain and the field is wide open to large swings.
- • If tensions de-escalate suddenly, traffic could spike, making 'at least 50' a plausible outcome, overtaking the current leaders.
- • The discrepancy between official US claims of continued transit and independent reports of empty seas leaves room for a rapid repricing based on new evidence.
What to watch
- • No specific upcoming events are identified in the provided headlines, but any announcement of a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough in Iran tensions would likely boost odds for higher thresholds.
- • A new attack or seizure of a vessel in the Strait could immediately lower odds for all thresholds, especially 'at least 30'.
- • The July 31 deadline itself is a catalyst: as the end date approaches, actual daily transit data will settle the market, forcing a final repricing.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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