Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Arnold Allen at about a 1% chance.
The field is extremely fragmented with no candidate above 5%, reflecting that Volkanovski has publicly discussed multiple potential opponents (Gaethje, Evloev, Lopes) but no fight is booked, leaving the market wide open.
📊 Base rate: In UFC next-fight markets, the eventual opponent typically has odds below 10% until a bout is officially announced, making the current 1% leaders consistent with a pre-announcement phase.
What's driving it
- • Volkanovski's openness to fighting Justin Gaethje at lightweight (Sherdog, Jun 22) suggests a possible move up in weight, diluting the featherweight contenders like Allen and Murphy.
- • Volkanovski gave a timeline for a Movsar Evloev fight (MMA Junkie, Jun 9), indicating that a top contender is in the mix but not imminent, keeping odds low.
- • Volkanovski commented on Diego Lopes being booked before him (MMA Junkie, Jun 12), implying he is not rushing into a fight, which suppresses any single candidate's probability.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Arnold Allen and Lerone Murphy are ranked featherweights who could be logical next opponents if Volkanovski stays at 145 lbs, but their 1% odds reflect no concrete negotiations.
- • The market's extreme dispersion means any slight news favoring one candidate could push them to a lead, but currently no catalyst exists.
Why it's still open
- • Volkanovski's recent comments about lightweight (Gaethje) and other non-featherweight names (Pereira, Gane) show he is considering multiple divisions, making a featherweight fight less certain.
- • The lack of any official announcement or strong rumor means any of the mentioned fighters (Evloev, Lopes, Gaethje) could overtake the current leaders with a single headline.
- • A fight with Conor McGregor, though not a candidate, is frequently discussed in headlines (LowKickMMA, Jul 4) and could emerge as a wildcard if McGregor returns.
What to watch
- • UFC 329 (likely late 2026) could feature Volkanovski if he is booked; an official fight announcement would immediately shift odds to the named opponent.
- • Volkanovski's next public interview or social media post hinting at a specific opponent could concentrate odds on that fighter.
- • A loss by a top contender (e.g., Evloev or Lopes) in an upcoming fight would remove them from contention, narrowing the field.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from InsightX’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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