3M Open Winner
🗂 Part of event: 3M Open Winner →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Jackson Koivun at about a 54% chance — a coin toss.
The field is unusually concentrated for a PGA Tour event, with the top three candidates commanding 76% of the odds, driven almost entirely by the absence of the British Open winner Ryan Fox, who is not listed among the 66 candidates and whose post-Open travel and rest headlines (AP News, Jul 24; Reuters, Jul 24) confirm he is not playing this week, leaving the door open for a lesser-known contender to capitalize on the depleted field.
📊 Base rate: In PGA Tour non-major events over the past decade, the pre-tournament betting favorite has won roughly 8-12% of the time, suggesting that even a 55% favorite like Jackson Koivun is priced well above the historical win rate for a favorite.
What's driving it
- • Jackson Koivun's 55% lead is not explained by any recent headline about his form or performance; no clear catalyst is provided for his surge, implying the market is pricing in a combination of field weakness and his amateur pedigree rather than a specific recent win or result.
- • The absence of Ryan Fox, fresh off his British Open victory (AP News, Jul 24; Reuters, Jul 24), removes the most obvious high-profile contender from the field, inflating the odds of remaining candidates like Koivun and Ben Kohles.
- • Ben Kohles at 11% and Emiliano Grillo at 10% have no recent headlines tied to them, suggesting their odds are driven by baseline form and the open field rather than any specific momentum.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Jackson Koivun leads at 55% because the market views him as the class of a field missing the British Open champion and other top-tier players, and his odds reflect a consensus that he is the most likely winner in a weak field.
- • Ben Kohles and Emiliano Grillo are the next most likely because they have shown consistent PGA Tour form and are seen as the primary challengers if Koivun falters, though no recent headlines support a specific hot streak.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open because the 55% favorite has no recent win or headline to justify such dominance, and historical base rates show that favorites in non-major events win less than 12% of the time, meaning the odds are likely overpricing Koivun.
- • Scottie Scheffler at 6% and Michael Brennan at 6% could overtake Koivun if they find form, as Scheffler is a proven winner on tour and Brennan has shown flashes, but neither has a recent headline indicating a surge.
- • A long-shot candidate like Chandler Phillips (3%) or Michael Kim (2%) could win if the front-runners struggle, as the field is shallow enough that a single good round could vault an unknown into contention.
What to watch
- • The first round of the 3M Open on July 25-26 will immediately reshape the odds: a strong start by Koivun would solidify his lead, while a poor round could collapse his odds and elevate Kohles, Grillo, or a dark horse.
- • Any withdrawal or injury announcement before the tournament starts would further concentrate or scatter the odds, but no such news is present in the provided headlines.
- • Post-round media coverage and leaderboard shifts after each day will provide the next concrete data points, with the market likely to react sharply to early performance.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
2026 3M Open
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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