Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 50bps?
🗂 Part of event: 10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026 →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 37% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 37% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 is above 50bps, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026? — At least 50%
Yes ≈ 0% chance