Fed decision in Jul 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Fed decision in Jul 2026? →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Fed maintains rate at about a 78% chance — likely.
The field is a near two-way race between a rate hold (77%) and a quarter-point hike (22%), with negligible odds for larger moves—despite widespread public confusion about Fed Chair Warsh's intentions that should, in theory, widen the distribution.
📊 Base rate: Since 2015, the Fed has left rates unchanged at roughly 70% of its regular meetings, making the current 77% probability of maintenance close to the historical norm for a non-crisis period.
What's driving it
- • The 1-point uptick in the maintain probability over 24 hours reflects markets absorbing the MarketWatch (Jul 25) view that Warsh deliberately keeps investors in the dark, reinforcing the default expectation of no change.
- • A Business Insider article (Jul 24) citing a chief economist warning of a surprise hike has not moved the hike odds above 22%, suggesting the market heavily discounts single-source predictions.
- • The USA Today (Jul 24) description of Warsh as 'an enigma' captures the lack of clear steering, which paradoxically solidifies the status-quo bet because there is no compelling reason to shift.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 77% probability of no change is driven by recent benign inflation data and the absence of a clear hawkish signal from Warsh, making a prolonged pause the default path.
- • The 22% probability of a 25 bps hike reflects lingering hawkish risk priced in by a minority, but the steep discount (vs. a 50% chance) shows the market views a hike as a low-probability tail event.
- • The combined 99% share of the two moderate outcomes indicates that traders consider a large move (>=50 bps) effectively ruled out, consistent with Warsh's known preference for gradual adjustments.
Why it's still open
- • If the surprise hike predicted by Business Insider (Jul 24) materializes, the 22% hike probability could surge, as the market would have underestimated Warsh's willingness to act unexpectedly.
- • A negative economic surprise, such as a sudden spike in unemployment claims or a financial stress event, could flip the 1% cut probabilities higher, but no such trigger is visible in recent headlines.
- • An unexpected hawkish tilt in the FOMC statement or dot plot (not currently flagged) could lift the 'hike >25bps' probability above its current 1%, though this remains speculative.
What to watch
- • Jul 29 FOMC decision: the only scheduled event before resolution; a rate hike would instantly shift the maintain probability to zero and boost the hike path, while a hold would validate the current leader and collapse tail odds.
- • No major U.S. economic data releases or Fed speeches are scheduled in the intervening days, so pre-decision odds shifts would require unscheduled leaks or external shocks (e.g., Middle East events noted by WSJ, Jul 24).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
On Jul 29, 2026
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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