Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?
🗂 Part of event: When will Bitcoin cross $100k again? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 14% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 14% right now.
Despite a recent bullish technical signal and a short-term price surge above $64,000, the market sees only a 13% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, reflecting the enormous gap of roughly $36,000 needed in just over five months.
📊 Base rate: Bitcoin has never closed a calendar year above $100,000; its all-time high near $69,000 in November 2021 remains the closest approach, making a $100,000 target historically unprecedented within a single year.
What's driving it
- • A bullish MACD crossover on July 10 gave a technical signal that some traders interpret as a potential move toward $70,000 (CoinDesk, Jul 10).
- • Bitcoin ETF inflows ended a 10-day selloff, helping push BTC above $64,000 and suggesting renewed institutional interest (FXLeaders, Jul 10).
- • Price analysis on July 10 described BTC as 'gearing up for a breakout' but still far from the $100,000 threshold, reinforcing the long odds (FXStreet, Jul 10).
- • A July 10 article questioned whether the bottom is already in or more pain is coming, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the sustainability of the rally (Zprávy Kurzy.cz, Jul 10).
The case for YES
- • If the bullish MACD signal and ETF inflows spark a sustained rally, Bitcoin could accelerate past $70,000 and build momentum toward $100,000 by year-end.
- • A surprise regulatory approval or major institutional adoption announcement could trigger a parabolic move, similar to the 2020-2021 cycle.
- • Macroeconomic conditions such as a weakening dollar or inflation hedge demand could drive a flight into Bitcoin, pushing prices well above current levels.
The case for NO
- • Bitcoin would need to gain over 55% from its current ~$64,000 level in five months, a pace it has rarely sustained outside of bull market peaks.
- • Resistance near $70,000 (the 2021 all-time high) has historically been a major barrier, and a failure to break it could lead to a retracement.
- • The 87% No odds reflect a consensus that the $100,000 target is too ambitious given the current market structure and lack of a clear catalyst for such a large move.
What to watch
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 16, 2026: a rate cut could boost risk assets like Bitcoin (likely Yes), while a hold or hike could pressure prices (likely No).
- • U.S. presidential election on November 3, 2026: a crypto-friendly candidate's win could drive optimism (likely Yes), while regulatory uncertainty could weigh (likely No).
- • Bitcoin halving anniversary on April 2026 has passed; any post-halving supply shock effects may become more apparent by Q4 2026, potentially supporting prices (likely Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
ETH Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing an 84% chance of an ETH daily up move, but the recent headlines paint a picture of extreme bearish sentiment and technical weakness, suggesting the odds may be overconfident in a short-term bounce.
Yes ≈ 90% chance
What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026?
5 outcomes
Will Bitcoin to cross $100,000 USD again in 2026?
Yes ≈ 25% chance