Will BTC trimmed mean be below $42500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How low will BTC get in July? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026 is ever below $42500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on Bitcoin reaching $65k and $75k in 2026, both at 99%, reflecting the current price near $64k and a strong bullish consensus. The single biggest recent shift is the surge in odds for $65k to near certainty as Bitcoin approached that level, confirmed by the July 20 headline 'Bitcoin price hits $65K wall'.
7 outcomes
ETH Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing an 84% chance of an ETH daily up move, but the recent headlines paint a picture of extreme bearish sentiment and technical weakness, suggesting the odds may be overconfident in a short-term bounce.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Which price will Bitcoin hit in July?
The market is effectively settled: with Bitcoin trading above $65,000 as of July 26 and only five days left in July, the 98% odds for $65,000 reflect a near-certain outcome rather than a speculative bet, leaving no room for the other two price levels.
3 outcomes
Which price will Solana hit in July?
The $70 target leads at 30%, but the field is far from decided; the single largest recent shift appears to be the mixed impact of a record stablecoin market cap and a $1.65M exploit on the same day (July 20), which may have widened the probability spread.
3 outcomes
What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026?
The field is heavily concentrated in the $60k–$90k range (81% combined), with the leading $60k–$75k bracket at 53% — a bet that Bitcoin's bear market bottoms and recovers modestly by year-end, but does not break out above $105k (only 6%). The biggest recent shift is the 53% leader absorbing share from the $75k–$90k and below-$60k bins, likely driven by the July 18 report of massive call spreads targeting $72,000 around the Fed meeting (CoinDesk, Jul 18) and the July 24 analysis suggesting the bear market may end before the four-year cycle predicts (Bitcoin Foundation, Jul 24).
5 outcomes
Will Bitcoin to cross $100,000 USD again in 2026?
Despite bullish predictions for a September turnaround, Bitcoin's price languishes near $63k, far from $100k, and a death cross in March has dampened hopes for a 2026 recovery. The market assigns only a 25% chance, reflecting skepticism that any near-term catalyst can fuel a 58% rally.
Yes ≈ 25% chance