Will Merck be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Which companies will be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Merck is announced to be or is officially removed from Dow Jones Industrial Average during Jun 25, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
The field is highly concentrated on a hold, but the recent surge in oil prices near $100 (The Business Times, Jul 26) has injected fresh inflation fears, making a hike more plausible than the 78% hold odds suggest, while the Fed chair's deliberate opacity (MarketWatch, Jul 25) keeps the market guessing.
5 outcomes
Will at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK be cancelled October 21, 2026? — At least 50%
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Largest company end of July 2026?
The field is extremely concentrated, with NVIDIA at 82% and Apple at 18%, leaving no other candidate above 5% — a near two-horse race. The single biggest recent shift is NVIDIA's dominance, which appears to be sustained by its position as the largest technology company by market cap in July 2026 (The Motley Fool, Jul 7), with no clear catalyst for a sudden reversal.
8 outcomes