Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30) →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market heavily favors No at 99% because the June–July window is climatologically the least likely time for exceptional D4 drought in Missouri, and recent drought conditions have been moderate rather than extreme.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, Missouri has experienced D4 drought only once (2012) during the June–July period, giving a historical base rate of roughly 4% across 25 years.
What's driving it
- • The odds collapsed to 1% Yes because the June–July timeframe falls in the region's typical growing-season precipitation peak, making D4 extremely rare (KTLO, Feb 2026, notes ongoing but moderate drought).
- • The 2025 extreme drought event (KSDK, Sep 2025) was confined to autumn, not summer, and did not carry into the following summer window, reinforcing the seasonal pattern.
- • No clear catalyst has emerged in 2026 to suggest a sudden intensification to D4, as winter and spring precipitation has been near normal (KTLO, Feb 2026).
The case for YES
- • Missouri experienced extreme drought in fall 2025 (KSDK, Sep 2025), showing the state can reach high drought categories, and a multi-year precipitation deficit could persist into summer 2026.
- • Climate change is increasing drought frequency and severity (Missouri Independent, Mar 2024), raising the tail risk of a flash drought during the June–July window.
- • The 2012 D4 event shows that exceptional drought can occur in Missouri during summer, providing a precedent for a Yes resolution.
The case for NO
- • June–July is historically the wettest period in Missouri, with average precipitation of 4–5 inches per month, making D4 development extremely unlikely (Weather Underground, Mar 2020).
- • The current drought conditions as of early 2026 are described as moderate, not extreme, and no forecast indicates a rapid intensification to D4 within the window (KTLO, Feb 2026).
- • Missouri has only recorded D4 drought in one summer (2012) since the drought monitor began in 2000, giving a 96% historical probability of No for this timeframe (Drought.gov, Aug 2019).
What to watch
- • Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor updates through June and July 2026: any sudden expansion of D3 (extreme) or D4 conditions in Missouri would push odds sharply toward Yes.
- • NOAA's Seasonal Drought Outlook, typically released in mid-May 2026: if it projects drought development or persistence in Missouri, odds could rise modestly toward Yes.
- • A major heatwave or prolonged dry spell in Missouri during late June or early July 2026 would increase the probability of flash drought and move odds toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the maximum drought monitor category in Missouri during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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