Will North Dakota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30) →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
With the observation period nearly over and no drought-related headlines, the market heavily favors No, reflecting that exceptional drought (D4) has not materialized in North Dakota this summer.
📊 Base rate: Omitted because no defensible historical statistic can be grounded from the provided headlines or stated odds.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines mention drought, heatwaves, or water shortages in North Dakota, suggesting conditions are not extreme (InForum, Jul 20).
- • The FEMA award for derecho repairs (Valley News Live, Jul 20) indicates past severe weather but not current drought, reinforcing a lack of drought concern.
- • The market's low Yes odds (12%) reflect that the observation window (June 4–July 30) is nearly complete without any official D4 designation.
The case for YES
- • A sudden, unforecasted heatwave or prolonged dry spell in the final days could push the drought monitor to D4, but no such event is indicated.
- • If the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor update (typically released Thursdays) on July 23 or July 30 unexpectedly shows D4 expansion into North Dakota, the market could resolve Yes.
The case for NO
- • The absence of any drought-related news throughout the period strongly implies that conditions have remained below D4 threshold.
- • Historical patterns show D4 is extremely rare in North Dakota during early summer; the current odds align with that baseline.
- • With only 9 days left in the observation period, a rapid escalation to exceptional drought is meteorologically unlikely without prior warning.
What to watch
- • Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor release on July 23, 2026 – if it shows D4 in North Dakota, odds would spike toward Yes; if not, No odds strengthen.
- • Any official state or federal drought declaration or emergency order before July 30 would move odds sharply toward Yes.
- • A major heatwave or lack of precipitation forecast for the final week (e.g., NWS outlook) could increase Yes probability, but no such forecast is mentioned in headlines.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the maximum drought monitor category in North Dakota during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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