Will the price of Gold be above 4900 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
🗂 Part of event: Gold price at year end? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 24% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 24% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 4900 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Will there be a 3 (or more) way tiebreaker in the Makuuchi division of a Grand Sumo Tournament in 2026? (basho)
Yes ≈ 99% chance