Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: When will xAI release Grok 5? →73¢Yes
Price history builds as this market trades.
No price history yet
Yes
73¢
No
27¢
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 73% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 73% right now.
StatusOpen
ClosesJan 1, 2027 · 5mo
Total volume$4.5K
Open interest$2.7K
ListedJan 1, 2026
Source
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Closes Jan 1, 2027 (5mo)
Resolution criteria
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗