Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market is pricing near-zero odds of a recovery to 60 transit calls by August 1, 2026, reflecting a consensus that the Strait of Hormuz disruption will persist for at least another year, with no near-term catalyst for a rebound.
📊 Base rate: Historical transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz averaged around 80-100 per day before 2024 disruptions, making the 60 threshold a modest recovery target that was routinely exceeded in normal conditions.
What's driving it
- • Prediction markets now indicate Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, as reported by CNBC on July 24, 2026, directly suppressing odds of a near-term recovery.
- • Odds of normal traffic this year have continued to tumble, per MSN on July 21, 2026, reinforcing the bearish sentiment and aligning with the current 1% Yes probability.
- • A CNBC report from July 8, 2026 noted that Kalshi traders predict traffic won't return to normal until 2027 after a latest setback, providing a clear timeline for prolonged disruption.
- • The June 23, 2026 report from The Institute for Energy Research that ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz is the only positive headline, but it lacks specific volume data to challenge the low odds.
The case for YES
- • A sudden de-escalation of regional tensions could allow a rapid surge in tanker transits, pushing the 7-day moving average above 60 within days, as shipping often rebounds quickly when security improves.
- • The IMF PortWatch data might reflect a temporary spike from delayed vessels or rerouted traffic, even if underlying conditions remain fragile, making the 60 threshold achievable on a short-term basis.
- • The June 23 report that ships are moving through the Strait suggests some traffic persists, and a coordinated diplomatic breakthrough could accelerate recovery faster than current market pessimism expects.
The case for NO
- • Multiple prediction-market reports from CNBC and MSN in July 2026 indicate a consensus that normal traffic is at least 12 months away, making a recovery before August 1 highly unlikely.
- • The July 18 report on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed highlights broader regional instability that directly impacts Hormuz traffic, compounding the disruption.
- • With only six days until the August 1 deadline, the 7-day moving average would need to jump from current depressed levels to above 60 almost immediately, which is implausible given the lack of any positive catalyst.
What to watch
- • Any new diplomatic agreement or ceasefire announcement in the region before July 31 would likely increase Yes odds, as it could trigger an immediate resumption of normal shipping.
- • A weekly IMF PortWatch update showing a sharp uptick in transit calls above 50 would signal momentum and modestly raise Yes odds, though still far from the 60 threshold.
- • An escalation of military incidents or new sanctions in the Strait of Hormuz before August 1 would further reduce the already minimal Yes odds, reinforcing the No outcome.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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