Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026?

What's driving it

• • CNBC reported on July 24 that prediction markets see traffic not returning to normal for 12 months or more, reinforcing the view that the recovery is prolonged (CNBC, Jul 24).
• • Kalshi odds on July 25 signaled delayed recovery, with traders pricing in a low probability of a near-term surge (Oz Arab Media, Jul 25).
• • Statista noted on July 21 that June and July saw only moderate ship traffic, providing direct evidence that current levels are below the 60 threshold (Statista, Jul 21).
• • A July 8 CNBC article stated that traders predict traffic won't return to normal until 2027 after a latest setback, anchoring expectations far beyond the August 15 deadline (CNBC, Jul 8).

What to watch

• • Any announcement of a ceasefire or naval escort agreement in the region before August 1 would likely shift odds toward Yes, as it could enable a rapid traffic increase.
• • Release of weekly IMF PortWatch data showing a sharp uptick in transit calls would move odds toward Yes, while continued low readings would reinforce No.
• • A new military incident or escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or nearby waters before mid-August would push odds further toward No, as it would deter shipping.