Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 30% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 30% right now.
Despite initial hopes for a post-disruption rebound, persistent pessimistic predictions and moderate traffic data have driven the market heavily toward No, with traders now betting that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will not exceed 60 before November 1, 2026.
What's driving it
- • CNBC reported on July 24 that Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, directly undermining the likelihood of a near-term recovery above 60 (CNBC, Jul 24).
- • Kalshi odds signaling delayed recovery, as covered by Oz Arab Media on July 25, reinforce the market's shift toward No (Oz Arab Media, Jul 25).
- • Statista noted on July 21 that June and July saw only moderate ship traffic, indicating current levels are well below the 60 threshold and not trending up sharply (Statista, Jul 21).
- • A July 18 CryptoSlate report described the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as effectively closed, which adds broader regional shipping disruption that could further depress Hormuz traffic (CryptoSlate, Jul 18).
The case for YES
- • If a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation of tensions occurs, shipping confidence could quickly rebound, pushing the 7-day average above 60 within a few weeks.
- • The 60 threshold is relatively low compared to pre-crisis levels, so even a partial recovery—such as clearing a backlog of delayed transits—could temporarily spike the average above that mark.
- • A coordinated effort by Gulf states to guarantee safe passage, perhaps under international naval patrols, could rapidly restore traffic volumes.
The case for NO
- • Multiple authoritative sources predict that normal traffic will not return until 2027, leaving only about three months until the November 1 deadline—too short for a sustained rise above 60 (CNBC, Jul 24; MSN, Jul 21).
- • Current moderate traffic, as reported by Statista, suggests the baseline is far below 60, and no catalyst is visible to cause a dramatic surge in the near term (Statista, Jul 21).
- • The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a parallel chokepoint, is likely reducing overall regional shipping demand, indirectly capping Strait of Hormuz transits (CryptoSlate, Jul 18).
What to watch
- • Release of weekly IMF PortWatch data for July and August 2026—if the 7-day MA remains below 50, odds will shift further toward No; if it unexpectedly jumps above 55, Yes momentum could grow.
- • Any new attack or blockade in the Strait of Hormuz or adjacent waters would heavily increase No probability, while a credible ceasefire agreement could boost Yes.
- • OPEC+ production decisions in late August or September 2026 that signal a major output increase could drive more tanker traffic, pushing odds toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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