Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 50% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 50% right now.
Traders are pricing a sustained recovery delay that pushes above-60 traffic past the April 2027 deadline, despite recent moderate ship counts, as the market sees no catalyst for a rapid return to normal.
📊 Base rate: Strait of Hormuz transit calls averaged well above 60 for most of the past decade, making the current odds of failing to reach that threshold by April 2027 unusually high relative to historical norms.
What's driving it
- • CNBC reported on July 24 that traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, reinforcing the No case with a specific timeline that extends beyond the resolution date
- • Oz Arab Media noted on July 25 that Kalshi odds signal delayed recovery, confirming the recent 6-point drop in Yes probability aligns with trader sentiment that normalcy is far off
- • Statista reported on July 21 that June and July saw moderate ship traffic, providing data that current levels are below the 60 threshold but not catastrophically low, leaving room for interpretation
- • An earlier CNBC report from July 8 predicted no return to normal until 2027 after a 'latest setback,' which continues to anchor expectations of prolonged disruption
The case for YES
- • If a diplomatic breakthrough or security improvement occurs in the coming months, traffic could spike sharply enough to push the 7-day moving average above 60 before April 1, 2027
- • Current moderate traffic levels (Statista, Jul 21) show the strait is not entirely closed, leaving a path to gradual recovery that could accelerate if regional tensions ease
- • Prediction markets have historically overestimated the duration of disruptions, so the current 43% odds may already discount too much pessimism
The case for NO
- • The CNBC report on July 24 explicitly warns that traffic may not normalize for 12 months or more, which would push recovery well past the April 2027 deadline
- • The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed (CryptoSlate, Jul 18), and continued spillover disruption in the broader region likely suppresses Hormuz traffic as well
- • The steady downward trend in Yes odds since early July (MSN, Jul 21; CNBC, Jul 8) suggests traders see a worsening situation with no imminent catalyst for recovery
What to watch
- • A new round of negotiations or a ceasefire in regional conflicts before October 2026: if announced, could boost Yes odds on hopes of faster traffic normalization
- • Monthly PortWatch data releases (e.g., August 2026 figures): if they show a significant drop below current moderate levels, No odds would likely rise further
- • Any major incident in the strait (e.g., naval confrontation or blockade expansion): would immediately drive Yes odds down as recovery timelines extend
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before April 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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