Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 58% chance — more likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 58% right now.
Despite earlier hopes for a 2026 recovery, a fresh US-Iran faceoff has pushed the expected return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic into 2027, and the market now assigns a slight edge (55%) to transit calls exceeding 60 per day by mid-2027, reflecting cautious optimism tempered by the risk of a permanently lower 'new normal.'
What's driving it
- • CNBC reported on July 8, 2026 that Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until 2027 after the latest setback, shifting the timeline and anchoring current odds (CNBC, Jul 8).
- • International Business Times on the same day questioned whether the disruption is becoming the new normal, introducing a persistent downside scenario (International Business Times, Jul 8).
- • NDTV Profit highlighted the deadlock after a fresh US-Iran faceoff, reinforcing geopolitical risk as the core driver (NDTV Profit, Jul 8).
- • The Guardian noted on April 8, 2026 that a ceasefire changed little for shipping, indicating that diplomatic progress has not yet translated into traffic recovery (The Guardian, Apr 8).
The case for YES
- • Historical precedent from previous Strait of Hormuz disruptions shows that traffic often rebounds to pre-crisis levels once a political settlement is reached, and the current odds reflect a bet that such a settlement will occur before mid-2027.
- • The gradual upward drift in Yes odds (+1pt in 24h) suggests that traders see incremental positive signals, possibly from behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts or a slow uptick in transit calls not yet captured in headlines.
- • Even if the 7-day moving average is currently below 60, a sustained period of calm and a few months of steady increases could push it above the threshold well before the July 2027 deadline.
The case for NO
- • The July 8 headlines consistently point to a 'deadlock' and a 'new normal,' implying that the structural factors reducing traffic—such as rerouting, insurance costs, and reduced demand—may persist beyond the market's resolution date.
- • The earlier April 23 CNBC article predicted a return to normal by July 2026, but that forecast failed, suggesting that market expectations have repeatedly been too optimistic and may be again.
- • With only 11 months remaining, even a modest recovery might not lift the 7-day moving average above 60 if the current baseline is significantly lower, and any new incident could reset progress.
What to watch
- • Next IMF PortWatch monthly data release (expected early August 2026) — if the 7-day moving average shows a clear upward trend, Yes odds will likely rise; if it stagnates or declines, No odds will increase.
- • Any announcement of formal US-Iran nuclear or security talks (no fixed date) — if talks are confirmed, Yes odds would jump; if talks collapse or are postponed, No odds would rise.
- • Major military incident or tanker seizure in the Strait (no fixed date) — such an event would sharply increase No odds by reinforcing the risk of prolonged disruption.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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