Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?
🗂 Part of event: Will President Trump be impeached during his term? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 62% chance — more likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 62% right now.
The 62% Yes odds reflect a market pricing in a non-US impeachment scenario, likely confusing the US presidency with foreign impeachment proceedings like the Philippines' Vice President Sara Duterte case, which dominates recent headlines.
📊 Base rate: Since 1789, only three US presidents have been impeached (Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump twice), giving a historical base rate of roughly 1.5% per presidency, making the current 62% odds extremely high relative to US history.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines about Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte's impeachment trial (Reuters, Jul 20; Philstar.com, Jul 25) may be misleading traders into thinking the market refers to a non-US president, inflating Yes odds.
- • A South African court temporarily halted President Ramaphosa's impeachment inquiry (BBC, Jul 24), adding to a global impeachment news flow that could confuse market participants about the specific US context.
- • No clear catalyst in US politics explains the 62% level; the market appears driven by foreign impeachment stories rather than domestic US events.
The case for YES
- • If the market is mistakenly pricing in a foreign president's impeachment, a correction could occur, but if traders continue conflating foreign and US impeachments, the odds may stay elevated.
- • A hypothetical US scandal or political crisis could emerge before 2029, though no current headlines support this.
- • The 62% odds themselves create a self-fulfilling dynamic if traders assume the market knows something they don't.
The case for NO
- • The US president has not been impeached in over 25 years, and no credible impeachment proceedings are reported in the provided headlines.
- • All recent impeachment-related headlines refer to foreign leaders (Philippines, South Africa), not the US president, suggesting the market is mispriced.
- • Historical base rate of ~1.5% per presidency implies the current 62% is an extreme outlier with no domestic US catalyst.
What to watch
- • Any US news outlet clarifying that this market covers the US president, not foreign leaders, would likely drop Yes odds sharply.
- • A formal US House resolution or hearing on impeachment would push Yes odds higher, but no such event is currently scheduled.
- • The Philippine vice president's impeachment trial outcome (Reuters, Jul 20) could either reduce confusion if it resolves, or increase it if coverage intensifies.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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