Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor?
🗂 Part of event: Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
The 8% probability reflects a market consensus that Kamala Harris is firmly focused on a 2028 presidential comeback, not a gubernatorial run, despite her strong California popularity.
📊 Base rate: Former U.S. Vice Presidents have rarely run for Governor after leaving office; the last such attempt was Walter Mondale in 1998, who lost, making the prior probability extremely low.
What's driving it
- • A July 9 Newsweek poll shows Harris beating Gavin Newsom by double digits in a 2028 presidential primary, reinforcing her presidential ambitions (Newsweek, Jul 9).
- • A June 24 Fathom Journal article explicitly lists candidates running for California governor 'now that Harris isn’t', treating her non-candidacy as a given (Fathom Journal, Jun 24).
- • An ABC News report from June 8 details Harris's potential 2028 comeback and notes some former allies prefer 'fresh' faces, suggesting she is not pivoting to state office (ABC News, Jun 8).
The case for YES
- • Harris leads Newsom by double digits in a 2028 poll, showing she could win a California gubernatorial race and might use it as a fallback if her presidential path narrows (Newsweek, Jul 9).
- • If the 2028 Democratic primary becomes too crowded or she faces weak support, a governor's race offers a high-profile executive position without leaving California.
- • The resolution date extends to November 2027, leaving room for a special election or recall scenario where she could jump in late.
The case for NO
- • Multiple news outlets treat Harris as not running for governor, with one explicitly listing 'who’s running now that Harris isn’t' (Fathom Journal, Jun 24).
- • Harris is actively building a 2028 presidential campaign infrastructure, and a gubernatorial run would conflict with that timeline and fundraising (ABC News, Jun 8).
- • Several strong Democratic candidates have already declared for the 2026 governor race, and the filing deadline has likely passed, making a 2026 run impossible; a future special election is speculative.
What to watch
- • If Harris announces a 2028 presidential exploratory committee or formal campaign, odds on a governor run would drop further (downward).
- • If a prominent Democratic candidate for California governor withdraws or if a recall election is called, odds could rise as a new opportunity emerges (upward).
- • A public statement by Harris explicitly ruling out a gubernatorial run would cement the No outcome (downward).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Kamala Harris runs for Governorship of California before Nov 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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