Will Billie Eilish be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Who will go on Tiny Desk this year? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 28% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 28% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Billie Eilish is on Tiny Desk before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Are people in the US getting dumber?
The 70% odds that Americans are getting dumber reflect a media-driven narrative linking AI tool use to cognitive decline, but the evidence is mostly anecdotal and lacks rigorous longitudinal data, making the market more a bet on cultural perception than on measurable intelligence.
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Highest box office-grossing movie in 2026 (US/Canada Domestic)
Despite The Odyssey's record-breaking $84M+ second weekend (Deadline, Jul 25), the market overwhelmingly favors Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 67%, suggesting a belief that franchise familiarity and pre-release hype will outweigh current box office surprises.
7 outcomes
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Tomatometer 92%+ on July 31, 2026.
The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).
2 outcomes
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
The market is essentially flat with both listed candidates at 0% odds, but the biggest recent shift is the record-breaking performance of Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ in late July, which is not a market candidate — creating a glaring mismatch between box office reality and trader sentiment.
2 outcomes
Zohran Mamdani
Despite a firestorm of negative headlines on July 9, 2026, Mamdani's odds remain at 18%—a level that reflects both the long-shot historical base rate for state legislators being chosen and the possibility that his polarizing brand could make him a symbolic pick for a divided year.
Yes ≈ 28% chance