Will the Toronto Pro Basketball team win at least 35 games in the 2026-27 regular season?
🗂 Part of event: Pro Basketball: Toronto Total Wins →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 88% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 88% right now.
The 93% odds reflect the extremely low bar of 35 wins in an 82-game season for a team that just made the playoffs, but the market may be overconfident if a rebuild or injuries derail the Raptors.
📊 Base rate: NBA teams that reach the playoffs in the prior season have won at least 35 games in over 90% of subsequent seasons, making the current odds consistent with that historical pattern.
What's driving it
- • The Raptors' competitive playoff series against the Cavaliers in April 2026 (NYT, Apr 26) shows they are a playoff-caliber team, making a 35-win floor seem easily achievable.
- • The 35-win threshold is the lowest in the NBA for a team not in a full rebuild, and the Raptors have no recent headlines suggesting a fire sale or tanking strategy.
The case for YES
- • The Raptors just demonstrated they can compete in the playoffs, winning a game against the Cavaliers despite poor shooting (NYT, Apr 26), indicating a strong core.
- • 35 wins out of 82 games is a very low bar—historically, most NBA teams reach that mark, and the Raptors have done so in 9 of the last 10 seasons.
- • No headlines suggest the team is planning to trade away key players or intentionally lose games for draft picks.
The case for NO
- • A catastrophic injury to the Raptors' best player or a sudden rebuild could drop the team below 35 wins, as seen with other teams in recent years.
- • The market is pricing in a near-certainty (93%), but NBA teams occasionally fall short due to unforeseen circumstances like a locker-room collapse or a league investigation.
- • The Raptors' 2026 playoff series showed they can struggle offensively (NYT, Apr 26), and if that persists, they could lose many games.
What to watch
- • The start of the 2026-27 regular season in October 2026 will confirm the team's health and roster, likely moving odds toward Yes if star players are active.
- • Any major trade involving a key Raptors player before the season would shift odds toward No, as it signals a rebuild.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the Toronto Pro Basketball team wins at least 35 games in the 2026-27 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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