Top US Netflix Show this week?
🗂 Part of event: Top US Netflix Show this week? →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: The Hawk: Season 1 at about a 95% chance — almost certain.
The field is extremely concentrated, with The Hawk at 97% odds, reflecting its apparent dominance in the current Netflix weekly top 10. The biggest recent shift is The Hawk's surge to near-certainty, while Little House on the Prairie, which was #1 as of July 21, has collapsed to 1%.
What's driving it
- • The Hawk's dominance is supported by its inclusion in multiple 'best shows to stream' roundups from July 23-24 (The Guardian, TheWrap, GamesRadar+), indicating strong critical and popular interest.
- • Little House on the Prairie's decline from #1 to 1% is directly tied to its July 21 peak (Netflix), suggesting its viewership dropped sharply in the current week.
- • Ransom Canyon at 5% may be benefiting from its new season, but it lacks the momentum to challenge The Hawk.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The Hawk leads because it is a new season that likely debuted to massive viewership, as implied by its top ranking in Netflix's own July 25 top 10 list (What's on Netflix).
- • Its high odds reflect that early-week data shows it firmly at #1, and no other show has mounted a serious challenge.
- • The Hawk's broad appeal and likely high completion rate solidify its position.
Why it's still open
- • The field is not truly open; The Hawk's 97% leaves minimal room for an upset, but a surprise late-week surge for a show like Ransom Canyon or a new release could theoretically change the outcome.
- • However, with only two days left in the week (July 25-26), any challenger would need an extraordinary spike in viewership, which is unlikely given the current data.
- • The market may be overreacting to early data, but the odds are so high that a correction is improbable.
What to watch
- • The weekend of July 25-26 could see shifts if viewers catch up on other shows, but The Hawk's lead appears insurmountable based on current data.
- • The official Netflix top 10 chart publication on July 28 will resolve the market, but no further catalysts are expected before then.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
The chart published on Jul 28, 2026
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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