Will Michael win Best Picture at the Oscars?

✨ The 70% odds that Americans are getting dumber reflect a media-driven narrative linking AI tool use to cognitive decline, but the evidence is mostly anecdotal and lacks rigorous longitudinal data, making the market more a bet on cultural perception than on measurable intelligence.

Yes ≈ 70% chance

✨ Even though Spider-Man: Brand New Day commands 64%, the field is not truly settled because Toy Story 5 just became 2026's highest-grossing domestic film (IMDb, Jul 21), and The Odyssey is posting exceptional daily numbers, including the year's best Monday stateside (Deadline, Jul 21), showing that late-breaking hits can still close the gap.

✨ The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).

✨ The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on the 'Other' option (96%), reflecting the market's near-certainty that the streak will far exceed 57 weeks, following the official confirmation that the show has already spent 52 consecutive weeks in the top 10 (Netflix, Jun 18).

✨ The market is essentially flat with both listed candidates at 0% odds, but the biggest recent shift is the record-breaking performance of Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ in late July, which is not a market candidate — creating a glaring mismatch between box office reality and trader sentiment.