Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?

🗂 Part of event: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? →

4¢Yes

5% 1 pts all-time

Yes

4¢

96¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesJan 1, 2027 · 5mo

Total volume$168K

Open interest$50.9K

ListedOct 18, 2025

Source

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Jan 1, 2027 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗