Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
🗂 Part of event: How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 21% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 21% right now.
Despite multiple July 2026 headlines showing Trump’s approval at record lows, the market is heavily betting his VoteHub average will stay above 35%, suggesting expected recovery or methodological divergence between polls.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines of record-low approval in individual polls (Newsweek Jul 9, Forbes Jul 17) might have slightly boosted the Yes side, but the odds remain at just 23%.
- • The market appears to discount the current lows as transient or specific to certain polls, expecting the VoteHub composite to average higher over the full Dec 2025–Dec 2026 window.
- • No explicit catalyst is provided for the 77% No odds, but the strong No bias likely reflects historical patterns where presidents’ approval recovers from mid-term troughs.
The case for YES
- • If VoteHub’s methodology corroborates the recent record lows shown in other polls (Newsweek Jul 9, Forbes Jul 17), a sustained slump could keep the average below 35%.
- • The Trump administration faces ongoing economic headwinds (Forbes Jul 17 highlights all-time low on the economy), which could suppress approval through the rest of 2026.
The case for NO
- • The resolution period covers over a year, giving ample time for approval to recover from the July 2026 lows, which often occur in a president’s second year.
- • Trump’s approval has historically shown resilience among his base, making a sustained sub-35% average unlikely even during negative news cycles.
- • The VoteHub metric may differ from the poll-specific lows reported; if it compiles multiple measures, the composite could be higher than any single poll’s low point.
What to watch
- • Release of VoteHub’s own monthly approval data for July 2026 or later would directly inform the trend; if it shows a reading below 35%, the Yes odds would likely rise.
- • Major economic or political events through late 2026, such as a recession or foreign policy crisis, could push approval lower (Yes) or trigger a rally-around-the-flag boost (No).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 35%, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Next Prime Minister To Replace Keir Starmer
The field is highly concentrated, with Andy Burnham absorbing nearly all of the probability after Starmer’s resignation and a key endorsement, pushing the top three candidates' combined odds to an unsustainable 110% that signals liquidity imbalances or heavy speculative positioning. The biggest recent shift is Burnham’s surge to 99% following the ‘Starmer Announces Resignation; Burnham Wins Key Endorsement’ headline (The New York Times, Jun 23).
31 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination field is exceptionally fragmented, with no candidate above 5% and the top three sum to just 1% — a sign that the race is truly wide open and still in its earliest jockeying phase, despite a recent poll placing Senator JD Vance near the top of a generic primary ballot (USA Today, Jul 23).
2 outcomes
Fed Decision in July?
Despite oil surging near $100 and resurfacing inflation fears, the market is overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at the July FOMC meeting, suggesting traders see the Fed as willing to look through energy-driven price pressures for now.
5 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Despite Newsom's commanding lead, the field is far from settled: the 20% 'Other' share and AOC/Ossoff's recent gains per Action Network (Jul 8) suggest a pool of anti-Newsom sentiment waiting for a viable alternative.
8 outcomes
Keir Starmer Exit Date - Year
The field is virtually collapsed into a single outcome — 2026 — after Starmer's own party briefed his resignation plan to clear the way for Andy Burnham, compressing nearly all probability into this year and leaving only a 2% tail for any later date.
4 outcomes