BTC Up or Down - Daily

✨ The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on Bitcoin reaching $65k and $75k in 2026, both at 99%, reflecting the current price near $64k and a strong bullish consensus. The single biggest recent shift is the surge in odds for $65k to near certainty as Bitcoin approached that level, confirmed by the July 20 headline 'Bitcoin price hits $65K wall'.

Yes ≈ 85% chance

✨ The field is extremely concentrated on $65,000 at 98%, driven by a recent surge above that level to a 30-day high, but the presence of a bearish warning from a known critic and a second bullish pattern suggest the race could shift if momentum stalls or reverses.

✨ The field is highly fragmented with a single leader at 30% for $70, but 58% of probability is scattered across many lower-odds prices, reflecting deep uncertainty about Solana's July close. The biggest recent shift appears to be the July 15 news of $3B in tokenized equities volume, which likely solidified $70 as the modal expectation.

✨ Despite bullish predictions for a September turnaround, Bitcoin's price languishes near $63k, far from $100k, and a death cross in March has dampened hopes for a 2026 recovery. The market assigns only a 25% chance, reflecting skepticism that any near-term catalyst can fuel a 58% rally.

Yes ≈ 25% chance

✨ The field is heavily concentrated in the $60k–$90k range (76% combined), with a notable shift towards the $75k–$90k bucket (28%) likely driven by recent AI-generated price predictions and expert optimism, while the lower bucket below $60k has shrunk to 11%.