How much AI extinction risk would you accept?
14¢Yes
Price history builds as this market trades.
No price history yet
Yes
14¢
No
86¢
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 14% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 14% right now.
StatusOpen
ClosesDec 7, 2079 · —
Total volumeⱮ181
Liquidity
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
optional stance
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How it resolves
Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Closes Dec 7, 2079 (—)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗