If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

94¢We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.

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We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.94%

The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.93%

Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.93%

A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.93%

This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration 93%

Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.90%

17 more937%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question. at about a 94% chance — very likely.

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StatusOpen

ClosesJan 2, 2050 · —

Total volumeⱮ11.3K

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Jan 2, 2050 (—)

Resolution criteria

Intended as a survey of individuals in Manifold about which, possibly controversial, propositions do you think are important to be included in a constitution designed to steer the general behavior of decentralized AI. You can think of it as betting on which Asimov laws an ideal society would make sure to include. You can treat it like you're betting on a constitution that will run your government. I'd treat it like you're betting on what philosophy the rest of the world is going to care about. What is the most important thing you want the AI to believe? The market of truth never resolves.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗