In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Never. at about a 91% chance — very likely.
The market is heavily concentrated on 'Never' at 91%, reflecting a widespread belief that the political and procedural barriers to a Senate conviction remain insurmountable, despite recent headlines suggesting impeachment talk is growing among Democrats if they win the midterms.
📊 Base rate: No U.S. president has ever been removed from office via impeachment, providing a historical base rate of 0% for removal, which anchors the current high 'Never' odds.
What's driving it
- • The 91% 'Never' odds are driven by the fact that Trump has already been impeached twice while in office but not removed, reinforcing the view that a two-thirds Senate majority for conviction is nearly impossible under current partisan polarization (Reuters, Apr 26).
- • Recent headlines about potential impeachment if Democrats win the midterms (Newsweek, Jun 29) have not shifted the market significantly, suggesting traders see a Democratic Senate majority as necessary but still insufficient for removal.
- • A letter to the editor and a Hill op-ed calling for impeachment (The Capital Times, Jun 29; The Hill, May 22) represent activist sentiment but lack concrete legislative action, keeping the 'Never' probability dominant.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 'Never' front-runner leads because historical precedent shows no president has been removed, and the current Republican Party remains loyal to Trump, making a bipartisan Senate conviction highly unlikely.
- • The 3% odds for 2027 and 2028 reflect the possibility that a Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms could lead to impeachment proceedings, but traders heavily discount removal due to the high Senate threshold.
- • The market's extreme concentration on 'Never' indicates that even with growing Democratic calls for removal (AP News, Apr 9), the procedural and political hurdles are seen as nearly insurmountable.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open to a shift if Democrats win both the House and a filibuster-proof Senate majority in the 2026 midterms, as Wilbur Ross warned could make impeachment likely (Newsweek, Jun 29).
- • A major scandal or criminal conviction of Trump could erode Republican support in the Senate, potentially enabling the 67 votes needed for removal, though no such event is currently priced in.
- • The 'Sometime after 2029' candidate at 0% shows the market sees no realistic path to removal after Trump leaves office, as impeachment is only possible while he is president.
What to watch
- • The 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026: If Democrats win control of both chambers, impeachment odds could rise significantly, shifting probability from 'Never' to a specific year like 2027.
- • Any new criminal indictment or conviction of Trump before 2028: This could increase Republican defections in the Senate, moving odds toward removal in 2027 or 2028.
- • A public statement from Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell endorsing impeachment: This would be a major catalyst for a shift away from 'Never', as it would signal bipartisan support for removal.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The way things are going in Trump's first week, it seems like he's making a lot of enemies on both sides of the aisle. When will it be enough to get a consensus to impeach him and remove him from office? Maybe it won't ever happen? Who knows! Note, he must be both impeached and removed from office in the year chosen.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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