Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 10% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 10% right now.
The market heavily discounts human extinction by 2050 despite mounting evidence that climate change is already decimating specific species and ecosystems, because the leap from localized disasters to global human annihilation lacks a plausible near-term mechanism in the provided headlines.
📊 Base rate: Since 1950, no natural disaster or environmental change has caused human extinction, with global mortality from climate-related events declining over 90% even as emissions rose (Our World in Data, 2023).
What's driving it
- • The France 24 report of a storm decimating the world's rarest great ape (Jun 10, 2026) reinforces the Yes case that climate change can destroy entire species, but the ape's extinction does not imply human extinction, muting the odds shift.
- • The Washington Post story on tens of thousands of plant species endangered (May 7, 2026) highlights systemic biodiversity loss, but no headline links this to a collapse of human food systems before 2050.
- • The ABC News report of an 'strikingly warm' ocean heat wave off Florida that could decimate corals (Feb 14, 2026) shows acute marine damage, yet corals are not a direct human food staple for most populations, limiting the extinction narrative.
- • Bill Gates's climate memo (Time, Nov 1, 2025) and the Business Insider coverage (Oct 28, 2025) frame climate change as a manageable problem through technology and policy, dampening fear of human decimation.
The case for YES
- • Climate-fuelled storms are already decimating species like the world's rarest great ape (France 24, Jun 10, 2026), suggesting that if extreme events escalate, they could fragment human societies past recovery.
- • The endangerment of tens of thousands of plant species (Washington Post, May 7, 2026) could cascade into agricultural collapse, as many staple crops rely on wild relatives for genetic resilience.
- • The 'vicious cycle' described by RFI (Feb 20, 2026) of heat exhausting bodies and minds could undermine collective human capacity to adapt, especially in vulnerable regions with low resources.
The case for NO
- • No headline provides evidence of a mechanism that would kill all 8+ billion humans within 24 years; even the most severe storms and heat waves are localized, not global.
- • Bill Gates's climate memo emphasizes technological solutions (Time, Nov 1, 2025), implying that human ingenuity will prevent existential collapse, a view echoed by global policy trends.
- • The ocean heat wave off Florida threatens corals but not human civilization directly (ABC News, Feb 14, 2026), and historical resilience to past climate shifts suggests adaptation is more likely than decimation.
What to watch
- • If the 2026 IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, due in November 2026, projects a high probability of crossing irreversible tipping points by 2050, odds would rise toward Yes.
- • A major climate summit like COP33 in late 2026 failing to produce a binding emissions cut agreement could increase odds for Yes by signaling political inaction.
- • Published research in early 2027 showing a collapse of a major food system (e.g., Indian monsoon failure) within a decade would push odds significantly toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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Yes ≈ 26% chance