Will Donald Trump be elected president of the US in the 2048 election?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market's 2% odds reflect Trump's age (102 in 2048) and the absence of any precedent for electing a candidate over 80, not the recent headlines about visa denials or mail-voting rulings, which are irrelevant to a race 22 years away.
📊 Base rate: No US presidential candidate aged 80 or older has ever been elected; the oldest elected was Joe Biden at 78, making a 102-year-old candidate historically unprecedented.
What's driving it
- • The odds are overwhelmingly driven by Trump's age—he would be 102 in 2048—making his candidacy and survival highly improbable, regardless of current events.
- • Recent headlines about Brazil denying visas to Trump officials and a court blocking his mail-voting plan (Reuters, Jul 25; Bloomberg, Jul 25) pertain to the 2026 midterms, not the 2048 election, and have no direct impact on this market.
- • No clear catalyst from the provided headlines moves the 2% probability; the market is anchored by the long time horizon and mortality risk.
The case for YES
- • If Trump remains politically active and healthy into his 90s, he could theoretically run again, though no candidate has ever won at such an age.
- • The headlines show Trump still wields influence over election narratives and party machinery, which could sustain a future campaign infrastructure.
- • A dramatic shift in public acceptance of very elderly candidates, or a change in constitutional age requirements, could make a 2048 run plausible.
The case for NO
- • Trump would be 102 in 2048, far exceeding the life expectancy of US males (about 75), making survival to that election unlikely.
- • No US president has been elected past age 78, and the physical and cognitive demands of the office make a centenarian candidacy implausible.
- • The recent headlines (e.g., visa denials, court losses) highlight ongoing legal and political challenges that could further diminish Trump's long-term viability.
What to watch
- • A major health update on Trump (e.g., hospitalization or public decline) would push odds toward 0%.
- • Any announcement of Trump endorsing a successor or retiring from politics would further reduce the already minimal probability.
- • A change in the 22nd Amendment (unlikely) or a Supreme Court ruling on age limits could theoretically increase odds, but no such event is scheduled.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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