Will the documentary, "Instadocs: The prediction market games" be available on Netflix in July?

✨ The 70% odds that Americans are getting dumber reflect a media-driven narrative linking AI tool use to cognitive decline, but the evidence is mostly anecdotal and lacks rigorous longitudinal data, making the market more a bet on cultural perception than on measurable intelligence.

Yes ≈ 70% chance

✨ The field is heavily concentrated on two future releases (Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 81% and Avengers: Doomsday at 18%), yet the current domestic box office leader is Toy Story 5, which has only 11% odds, and a dark horse The Odyssey is surging with strong holds but remains at 3% — the biggest recent shift is The Odyssey's consistent overperformance, but the market has not adjusted its odds accordingly.

✨ The market expects Spider-Man: Brand New Day to fall short of a 92% Tomatometer score, with the 'Below 92%' option commanding 69% despite recent positive buzz from cast interviews suggesting a strong fan reception; the single biggest recent shift is a 1-point drop in the Yes (≥92%) probability over 24 hours, potentially reflecting skepticism after mixed reviews for other Marvel projects like 'The Punisher: One Last Kill' (Rotten Tomatoes, May 12).

✨ The field is extremely open with no candidate above 5%, and the biggest recent shift is Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' shattering records with a $21M+ Tuesday and becoming the 3rd highest-grossing Hollywood film in India for 2026, yet it is not listed as a candidate, suggesting the market may be mispricing or ignoring a potential blockbuster that could dominate the year.

✨ Despite a firestorm of negative headlines on July 9, 2026, Mamdani's odds remain at 18%—a level that reflects both the long-shot historical base rate for state legislators being chosen and the possibility that his polarizing brand could make him a symbolic pick for a divided year.

Yes ≈ 28% chance