Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
11¢Yes
11% 3 pts all-time
Yes
11¢
▼ 2 pts today
No
89¢
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 11% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 11% right now.
StatusOpen
ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo
Total volumeⱮ55
24h volumeⱮ18
Liquidity
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
Yes26¢
No74¢
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Ɱ57.1K Vol 0pts3y