Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Trump -> Stay at about a 82% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The first half resolves based on the US president after inauguration day 2025. The second half resolves based on the actions of the US president during their four year term of office (2025-2029). An attempt to leave includes any attempt to send a notice of denunciation under article 13, regardless of whether it is found to be legally valid, and regardless of whether the one year waiting period expires. It also includes attempts to leave without invoking that article, such as invoking a fundamental change or circumstances, a material breach, domestic law, annulment, etc. It includes any actions of the executive branch of government, plus any actions of the legislative or judicial branch that are at the direction of the US President. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
128 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is moderately concentrated with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez combining for 66%, but the 21% for both Buttigieg and Harris and a 23% 'Other' share show significant latent openness; the biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in 2028 (NYT, Jul 24), which could reshape candidate strategies and delegate math.
8 outcomes