How many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will Texas lose/gain after the next U.S. census?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Gain more than 2 at about a 59% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The number of seats each state has in the United States House of Representatives is determined according to the most recent decennial census, as mandated by the US Constitution. The next census is in 2030. This market will resolve to the outcome that corresponds to the amount of seats that the state has gained or lost following reapportionment based on the results of that census.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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