Which countries in Europe will reestablish conscription by 2030? ๐ช๐ช๐บ
๐ก What the odds say
Most likely: Croatia ๐ญ๐ท at about a 93% chance โ very likely.
Data from Manifoldโs public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source โ treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
[image]In light of increasing interstate conflicts in the 2020s, many European countries may reconsider their stance on conscription. Partial conscription, as seen in Sweden, could become more common across Europe. This market is based on official changes to conscription policy and laws, not necessarily on conscription being implemented on the ground. Therefore, as long as it is officially established, it counts.
โ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news โ so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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