Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2100?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Russian Federation at about a 44% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve at the end of 2100 based on available data and verifiable sources when the following conditions are set for a country: A distinct region within the country must declare and gain its independence. At least one other sovereign nation must officially recognize the independence of this region. The declaration and recognition must occur before the end of 2100. Market for 2030: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d Market for 2100: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/which-countries-will-have-regions-d-8684478bf61d
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