If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 10% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 10% right now.
The market heavily favors No (91%) on border crossings exceeding 2 million in FY 2026 under a Trump presidency, reflecting confidence in his enforcement record, but a recent NBC report (Jun 2025) suggests his deportation approach may backfire, creating a potential upside risk that the odds may be underpricing.
📊 Base rate: Under Trump's previous term (FY 2017-2020), annual border encounters never exceeded 1 million, making the 2 million threshold very high relative to his record.
What's driving it
- • The NBC News report (Jun 20, 2025) highlighting that Trump's mass deportation pledges are creating more undocumented people introduces a counter-narrative to the assumption that his policies reduce crossings, but the market has not reacted strongly, indicating traders view enforcement as effective.
- • The PBS fact-check (Feb 24, 2026) of Trump's false claims ahead of the State of the Union may have included border statistics, but the article itself does not provide clear evidence of crossing levels, so the market's low Yes odds are likely driven by broader expectations rather than recent headlines.
- • The Time Magazine article (Feb 27, 2026) on non-citizen voting is tangential but may reinforce the narrative of Trump focusing on immigration enforcement, which could reduce crossings.
The case for YES
- • Trump's mass deportation pledges could lead to increased border crossings as families attempt to avoid separation, as suggested by the NBC report (Jun 2025) that his policies are creating more undocumented people.
- • Historical precedent shows that enforcement-only approaches often fail to deter crossings long-term, and Trump's previous term saw a dip but not a sustained drop below 2 million annually.
- • The market may be underestimating the difficulty of reducing crossings given push factors in Central America and the limited capacity of enforcement.
The case for NO
- • Trump's previous term saw a significant reduction in border crossings due to policies like Remain in Mexico and the wall, and his renewed pledges suggest a similar or stronger approach.
- • The PBS fact-check (Feb 2026) of Trump's false claims may indicate that his administration is actively managing border numbers, though the article focuses on falsehoods.
- • The market's 91% No odds reflect a strong consensus that Trump will succeed in keeping crossings below 2 million, likely based on his track record and policy proposals.
What to watch
- • With FY 2026 ending in September 2026, the remaining monthly border encounter reports (Aug and Sep 2026) will be key - if they show high numbers, Yes odds could rise; if low, No odds could solidify.
- • Any new policy announcement from Trump regarding border enforcement (e.g., reinstating Remain in Mexico) - likely to decrease Yes odds if seen as effective.
- • A major migrant caravan or surge event - could increase Yes odds if it overwhelms enforcement.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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