Which SciFi/Fantasy books will be adapted into movies or TV series by the end of the 2020s?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Project Hail Mary at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The criteria here are somewhat subjective - I will make the final determination so I will not bet. Some important considerations will be: Does the movie/series have the same title as the book or the series of books to which the book belongs? Are most of the major characters named the same? Is the plot roughly the same? Sometimes plots are changed / characters are combined in the adaptation process, but that alone isn't enough to make something "not an adaption" Feel free to add multiple books from a series, but note that if a TV or movie series is covering a book series one book at a time, I will only resolve YES if I think the series can be said to have adapted the particular book. FAQ: I will resolve adaptations YES, even if they were adapted before this market was released. It doesn't matter if it's animated or if the animation or writing is partly or completely AI-generated, but it does have to be on the level of quality so that I feel like I am watching a Hollywood movie or major-streaming-platform show, rather than a piece of experimental cinema. The adaptation also has to be legally licensed by the copyright holder and available to the public for consumption. The release date of the movie or first episode must happen before the market close date to count.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Highest box office-grossing movie in 2026 (US/Canada Domestic)
7 outcomes
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Tomatometer 92%+ on July 31, 2026.
2 outcomes
How many consecutive weeks will "KPop Demon Hunters" stay in the Netflix Top 10?
The market is overwhelmingly concentrated on 'Other' at 99%, reflecting near-certainty that the show's record-breaking streak will end at some point beyond the current 11 weeks, with all specific week counts at 0% — a rare consensus that the exact duration is unpredictable despite the show's dominance.
34 outcomes
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
The market is essentially flat with both listed candidates at 0% odds, but the biggest recent shift is the record-breaking performance of Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ in late July, which is not a market candidate — creating a glaring mismatch between box office reality and trader sentiment.
2 outcomes
Who will win the most awards at the 78th Emmy Awards?
10 outcomes