Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Adam Back at about a 28% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
If any of the listed are confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto by the close date, their market will resolve YES. Otherwise they will resolve NO. There can be more than 1 resolved YES if Satoshi is proven to be multiple people. This will resolve based on either reporting from a reputable source (major news organization) and preferably the Satoshi Nakamoto Wikipedia page would also be updated. If I'm missing anyone, feel free to comment and I will add them.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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