If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?

✨ The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.

✨ The field is highly concentrated, with Andy Burnham absorbing nearly all of the probability after Starmer’s resignation and a key endorsement, pushing the top three candidates' combined odds to an unsustainable 110% that signals liquidity imbalances or heavy speculative positioning. The biggest recent shift is Burnham’s surge to 99% following the ‘Starmer Announces Resignation; Burnham Wins Key Endorsement’ headline (The New York Times, Jun 23).

✨ The Republican nomination field is exceptionally fragmented, with no candidate above 5% and the top three sum to just 1% — a sign that the race is truly wide open and still in its earliest jockeying phase, despite a recent poll placing Senator JD Vance near the top of a generic primary ballot (USA Today, Jul 23).

✨ Despite oil surging near $100 and resurfacing inflation fears, the market is overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at the July FOMC meeting, suggesting traders see the Fed as willing to look through energy-driven price pressures for now.

✨ Despite Newsom's commanding lead, the field is far from settled: the 20% 'Other' share and AOC/Ossoff's recent gains per Action Network (Jul 8) suggest a pool of anti-Newsom sentiment waiting for a viable alternative.

✨ The field is virtually collapsed into a single outcome — 2026 — after Starmer's own party briefed his resignation plan to clear the way for Andy Burnham, compressing nearly all probability into this year and leaving only a 2% tail for any later date.