Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Other US citizen at about a 38% chance.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The recent Supreme Court ruling (Trump v United States - wiki, pdf) is being criticized for allowing absolute and presumptive immunity for various acts involving core powers. One of the recurring hypotheticals is (paraphrased) "ordering Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival". Will a US president order the assassination of any of the above people by 2029? Resolves YES to any assassinations that have been ordered by the president by the end of 2028 as they are ordered (assassinations that are publicly ordered but not carried out prior to 2028 still count). Resolves NO to any assassinations that happen, but are not claimed responsibility by the president and are attributed to independent, presidentially-unrelated assassins prior to the end of 2028. Resolves NO on December 31st of 2028 for any assassinations that have not yet been ordered. Motivation doesn't matter, but it has to be a deliberate, targeted killing (for instance if something like this happened again, it would resolve "Other US citizen" to "YES"). Accidental or incidental killings don't count here, but explicit assassination orders, whether they're justified as lawful or not, do. Impeachment in the house or senate, and subsequent removal from office alone does not count as "criminal charges" here. The president has to avoid being criminally charged for the act, whether or not he stays in office. Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The term 'Former president' has been clarified to refer specifically to a former president of the US. Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The term 'Former president' refers specifically to a former president of the United States.
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