Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Other at about a 29% chance.
The field remains unusually fragmented with 'Other' leading at 29%, reflecting deep uncertainty about both party nominations; the biggest recent shift is the Democratic National Committee's decision to keep South Carolina as the first primary state (The Guardian, Jul 24), which could reshape the Democratic field's dynamics.
📊 Base rate: Since 1900, the incumbent party has won about 55% of presidential elections, suggesting that the combined odds for Republican candidates (currently around 34% for Vance and Rubio alone) may be below the historical baseline for the party in power.
What's driving it
- • The Democratic primary calendar decision to keep South Carolina first (The Guardian, Jul 24) may boost candidates with strong African American support, like Kamala Harris, though her odds remain low at 4%.
- • Nevada Democrats losing their first-in-the-West status (Las Vegas Review-Journal, Jul 24) reduces the early-state advantage for candidates like Gavin Newsom who might have relied on a Western base.
- • General election odds markets (Federal News Network, Jul 24) show no clear frontrunner, with 'Other' leading, indicating that the race is still wide open and candidate entry could shift odds.
Why the front-runners lead
- • JD Vance, as sitting Vice President, benefits from the institutional support and name recognition of the incumbent administration, giving him a strong base in the Republican primary.
- • Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State, has a national profile and foreign policy credentials that could appeal to moderate Republicans and independents.
- • Gavin Newsom, as California Governor, has a large donor network and a proven ability to raise money, plus a potential path through the Democratic primary if he consolidates the progressive and establishment wings.
Why it's still open
- • The 'Other' category at 29% shows that a significant portion of bettors expect a candidate not yet in the field, such as a surprise entrant like Michelle Obama or a governor from a swing state.
- • The Democratic primary is still highly competitive, with no candidate above 14%, meaning any of the top Democrats could overtake Newsom with a strong early-state performance.
- • Historical precedent shows that early frontrunners often fade; for example, in 2016, Jeb Bush led early but lost to Donald Trump, suggesting that current odds for Vance and Rubio are not locked in.
What to watch
- • The 2026 midterm elections (Federal News Network, Jul 24) will reshape the political landscape; a strong performance by either party could boost their likely nominees.
- • The first Democratic primary debate, expected in late 2027, will be a key moment for candidates like AOC or Buttigieg to gain momentum and potentially overtake Newsom.
- • If Donald Trump announces a 2028 run (though not currently in the field), it would dramatically reshape the Republican side, likely collapsing Vance and Rubio's odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment. This market may resolve prior to official certification of the electoral college votes if the election has been called by all major decision desks. Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other". Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions. See also: @/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-be-the-two-major-party-nom @/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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