Will Germany's Federal Constitutional Court rule that the 2025 election votes must be recounted (BSW complaint)?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: No at about a 57% chance — more likely than not.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW party intends to call Germany's Federal Constinutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) after the party very narrowly missed out on reaching the necessary 5% of votes in the last election to get seats in the federal parliament. What will be the outcome with regards to a recount? If the court rules that BSW gets parliament seats without a recount, or something similar, this still resolves "No". The question only refers to the court's ruling in terms of a recount. (So whether that recount ends up happening is also irrelevant) See this other market for the outcome of a recount if it ends up taking place: https://manifold.markets/ADings/if-germanys-2025-election-votes-are
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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