Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Republican primaries?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: JD Vance at about a 75% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%. In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were: 2024: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley 2020: Donald Trump 2016: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul 2012: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann 2008: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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